← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 10:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Framber Valdez (ERA 4.36, WHIP 1.4) · home: Parker Messick (ERA 2.46, WHIP 1.02)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers win in Cleveland Guardians v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.36 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.36 | $13.60 | +2% | +13.60 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 57% | 1.70 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 43% | 2.36 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 2.05 | 2.30 | +12.1% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.62 | 1.65 | +1.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1502.66 | 1487.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.55 | -10.47 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.10 |