← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 10:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Martín Pérez (ERA 3.05, WHIP 1.21) · home: Zack Wheeler (ERA 3.31, WHIP 1.09)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 59% | 1.67 |
| Atlanta Braves win | 41% | 2.40 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 2.24 | 2.34 | +4.7% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.62 | 1.62 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1557.37 | 1548.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.54 | 0.15 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.40 |