← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Yusei Kikuchi (ERA 5.65, WHIP 1.49) · home: Braxton Ashcraft (ERA 3.59, WHIP 1.08)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.55 | $5.47 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 63% | 1.57 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 37% | 2.73 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.40 | 2.52 | +5.1% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.46 | 1.55 | +6.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pittsburgh Pirates | Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1497.15 | 1416.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.73 | -2.56 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.40 |