← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 4, 10:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Shane Drohan (ERA 3.75, WHIP 1.3) · home: Rhett Lowder (ERA 5.14, WHIP 1.46)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Cincinnati Reds v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.63 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.63 | $6.30 | +2% | +6.30 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 58% | 1.76 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 42% | 23.43 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.57 | 1.03 | -34.5% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.09 | 23.43 | +1018.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1466.87 | 1583.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.89 | -5.20 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.23 | 0.95 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.50 |