← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 4, 11:45 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Andrew Sears (ERA 6.75, WHIP 1.35) · home: Foster Griffin (ERA 3.21, WHIP 1.12)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.77 | $7.70 | +1% | +7.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 55% | 1.77 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 45% | 2.18 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1500.93 | 1488.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.16 | -12.29 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.90 |