← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 2, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Drew Anderson (ERA 3.87, WHIP 1.33) · home: Dean Kremer (ERA 5.6, WHIP 1.26)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers win in Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.51 | +4% | +10.51 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 50% | 13.41 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 50% | 2.05 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.97 | 1.06 | -46.2% | |
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.83 | 13.41 | +634.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota Twins | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1469.78 | 1486.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.88 | -14.27 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 2.00 |