← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 3, 12:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Hayden Wesneski (ERA 3.86, WHIP 1.19)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago White Sox win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.21 | $12.10 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 55% | 2.81 |
| Chicago White Sox win | 45% | 2.43 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.90 | 2.36 | +24.5% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.76 | 1.63 | -7.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1501.68 | 1507.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.45 | 2.29 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.90 |