← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 2, 04:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Casey Mize (ERA 3.45, WHIP 1.1) · home: Brandon Williamson (ERA 6.11, WHIP 1.64)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +1% | +12.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 56% | 1.79 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 44% | 2.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 1.73 | 1.69 | -2.4% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.05 | 2.24 | +9.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | — | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 21.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1462.76 | 1530.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.85 | -5.81 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.20 |