← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 2, 05:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Grant Holmes (ERA 3.71, WHIP 1.34)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.36 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.36 | $13.60 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 58% | 1.73 |
| Washington Nationals win | 42% | 10.45 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.65 | 1.63 | -0.8% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 2.24 | 2.34 | +4.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1465.24 | 1539.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.53 | -5.83 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.50 |