← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 1, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Tyler Phillips (ERA 3.59, WHIP 1.37) · home: Randy Dobnak (ERA 1.92, WHIP 1.37)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins win in Kansas City Royals v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.07 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 2.07 | $5.35 | -3% | +5.35 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 51% | 1.93 |
| Miami Marlins win | 49% | 2.07 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 1.86 | 2.01 | +7.8% | |
| Kansas City Royals win | 1.79 | 1.85 | +2.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kansas City Royals | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1476.83 | 1490.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.54 | -2.10 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.25 | 1.04 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.70 |