← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 1, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Troy Melton (ERA 1.86, WHIP 1.01) · home: Andrew Morris (ERA 3.82, WHIP 1.34)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers win in Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 50% | 1.97 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 50% | 2.08 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.90 | 1.85 | -2.4% | |
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.86 | 2.01 | +8.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | — | 15 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota Twins | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1463.89 | 1492.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.31 | -12.02 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.00 |