← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 1, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Logan Webb (ERA 3.72, WHIP 1.1) · home: Paul Skenes (ERA 3.79, WHIP 1.12)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in Pittsburgh Pirates v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.42 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.42 | $14.20 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 60% | 1.65 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 40% | 2.52 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 2.46 | 2.46 | 0.0% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.52 | 1.57 | +3.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pittsburgh Pirates | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1493.61 | 1466.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.95 | 6.13 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.18 | 1.02 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.00 |