← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 1, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Randy Vásquez (ERA 4.02, WHIP 1.28) · home: Nick Lodolo (ERA 5.24, WHIP 1.54)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +1% | +12.00 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 53% | 1.86 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 47% | 2.20 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 1.79 | 1.73 | -3.4% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 1.86 | 2.14 | +15.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 21.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1460.55 | 1532.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.87 | -0.85 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 3.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.50 |