Cincinnati Reds 0–5 San Diego Padres

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 31, 10:40 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.27	$12.70	+2%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
San Diego Padres win	56%	1.76
Cincinnati Reds win	44%	2.29

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
San Diego Padres win		1.70	1.68	-1.5%
Cincinnati Reds win		2.19	2.25	+2.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
San Diego Padres	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	5
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Cincinnati Reds	San Diego Padres
congestion 21d	20.00	18.00
elo	1464.20	1529.18
elo momentum (last 5)	3.82	-6.96
matches since win	0.00	3.00
rest days	0.97	1.21
runs against avg (last 10)	7.60	3.70
runs for avg (last 10)	5.60	4.20