Tampa Bay Rays 2–3 New York Mets

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 31, 10:40 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
New York Mets win in Tampa Bay Rays v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.54	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.54	$15.40	-2%	+15.40	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Tampa Bay Rays win	60%	1.66
New York Mets win	40%	2.54

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
New York Mets win		2.24	2.45	+9.5%
Tampa Bay Rays win		1.60	1.59	-0.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
New York Mets	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	3
Tampa Bay Rays	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Tampa Bay Rays	New York Mets
congestion 21d	19.00	18.00
elo	1536.54	1485.45
elo momentum (last 5)	7.46	-10.94
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	1.21	1.15
runs against avg (last 10)	3.30	4.40
runs for avg (last 10)	3.80	3.50