← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 30, 02:05 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 61% | 1.70 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 39% | 13.41 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 1.57 | 1.18 | -24.9% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.14 | 10.50 | +390.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1412.33 | 1503.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.56 | 4.24 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.40 |