← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 29, 08:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Houston Astros win in New York Mets v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.23 | $12.30 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 54% | 1.83 |
| Houston Astros win | 46% | 2.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 1.97 | 2.18 | +10.6% | |
| New York Mets win | 1.70 | 1.73 | +1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| New York Mets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1485.65 | 1502.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.22 | 6.04 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.00 |