← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 28, 11:15 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seattle Mariners win in Toronto Blue Jays v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 57% | 1.70 |
| Seattle Mariners win | 43% | 2.29 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 2.19 | 2.24 | +2.3% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.67 | 1.70 | +1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toronto Blue Jays | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1505.35 | 1489.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.42 | 0.27 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.01 | 2.13 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 7.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |