← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 28, 11:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in Tampa Bay Rays v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 55% | 1.79 |
| San Diego Padres win | 45% | 2.24 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 2.01 | 2.12 | +5.5% | |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.76 | 1.74 | -1.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tampa Bay Rays | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1529.28 | 1536.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.99 | 3.17 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.25 | 2.13 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.90 |