Los Angeles Angels 3–4 Cleveland Guardians

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 26, 08:07 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Joey Cantillo (ERA 3.73, WHIP 1.45) · home: Grayson Rodriguez (ERA 6.41, WHIP 1.53)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.24	$12.36	-0%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Cleveland Guardians win	55%	1.76
Los Angeles Angels win	45%	2.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Cleveland Guardians win		1.70	1.70	0.0%
Los Angeles Angels win		2.14	2.19	+2.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Cleveland Guardians	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	4
Los Angeles Angels	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Los Angeles Angels	Cleveland Guardians
congestion 21d	20.00	19.00
elo	1424.81	1507.99
elo momentum (last 5)	-4.78	13.85
matches since win	3.00	0.00
rest days	0.77	0.77
runs against avg (last 10)	2.90	2.40
runs for avg (last 10)	3.90	5.10