← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 26, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Dustin May (ERA 4.57, WHIP 1.3) · home: Robert Stock (ERA 5.4, WHIP 1.68)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 58% | 1.70 |
| New York Mets win | 42% | 2.39 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.65 | 1.64 | -0.5% | |
| New York Mets win | 2.19 | 2.35 | +7.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1496.39 | 1576.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.56 | 0.67 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.50 |