← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 26, 01:38 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Gavin Williams (ERA 3.72, WHIP 1.09) · home: Walbert Ureña (ERA 2.8, WHIP 1.24)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 55% | 2.29 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 45% | 2.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.60 | 1.79 | +12.4% | |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.14 | 2.05 | -4.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Angels | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1427.44 | 1505.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.50 | 14.10 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.80 |