← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 25, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Harrison (ERA 2.84, WHIP 1.11) · home: Zac Thornton (ERA 3.04, WHIP 1.15)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -2% | +12.88 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 57% | 3.40 |
| New York Mets win | 43% | 2.42 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.73 | 3.40 | +96.3% | |
| New York Mets win | 2.09 | 1.34 | -35.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1494.11 | 1578.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.21 | -1.11 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.21 | 2.01 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.80 |