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Colorado Rockies 2–7 Cleveland Guardians

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 07:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Foster Griffin (ERA 3.18, WHIP 1.11) · home: Tomoyuki Sugano (ERA 4.7, WHIP 1.26)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Colorado Rockies win in Colorado Rockies v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40
MLB dog variance$10.002.40$13.99-3%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cleveland Guardians win61%1.65
Colorado Rockies win39%7.85

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Cleveland Guardians win1.501.60+6.3%
Colorado Rockies win2.292.40+4.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Cleveland Guardians3201000107
Colorado Rockies0200000002

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricColorado RockiesCleveland Guardians
congestion 21d18.0017.00
elo1386.841499.56
elo momentum (last 5)-11.099.64
matches since win5.000.00
rest days0.790.79
runs against avg (last 10)5.902.80
runs for avg (last 10)4.704.30