← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 05:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jackson Kent (ERA 9.39, WHIP 2.48) · home: Janson Junk (ERA 4.37, WHIP 1.36)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in Miami Marlins v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.40 | $14.00 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 59% | 1.70 |
| Washington Nationals win | 41% | 18.75 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.09 | 2.35 | +12.2% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 1.57 | 1.62 | +3.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Miami Marlins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1495.39 | 1462.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.40 | -5.34 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.10 |