← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 07:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Matt Wilkinson (ERA 0, WHIP 0.5) · home: Jake Bennett (ERA 3.46, WHIP 1.07)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in Boston Red Sox v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 3.08 | $20.77 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 65% | 1.57 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 35% | 3.08 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 2.52 | 2.88 | +14.2% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.44 | 1.44 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1558.34 | 1457.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.32 | -7.42 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.10 |