← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 12:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Rhett Lowder (ERA 5.17, WHIP 1.49) · home: Michael Soroka (ERA 2.93, WHIP 1.11)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.50 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 57% | 31.21 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 43% | 2.52 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.24 | 2.11 | -5.7% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.60 | 1.79 | +12.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1522.76 | 1460.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.92 | -5.23 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.60 |