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Colorado Rockies 3–4 Cleveland Guardians

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 12:10 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Tanner Bibee (ERA 4.01, WHIP 1.15) · home: Gabriel Hughes (ERA 6.69, WHIP 1.38)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Cleveland Guardians win in Colorado Rockies v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74
Pitcher edge$10.001.74$7.40+4%+7.40won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cleveland Guardians win57%1.76
Colorado Rockies win43%4.98

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Cleveland Guardians win1.651.59-3.5%
Colorado Rockies win2.052.45+19.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Cleveland Guardians0003010004
Colorado Rockies0001100013

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricColorado RockiesCleveland Guardians
congestion 21d18.0017.00
elo1388.421497.99
elo momentum (last 5)-3.934.06
matches since win4.000.00
rest days0.980.98
runs against avg (last 10)6.403.10
runs for avg (last 10)4.404.30