← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 22, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jacob Lopez (ERA 5.22, WHIP 1.53) · home: Hunter Brown (ERA 3.67, WHIP 1.3)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oakland Athletics win in Houston Astros v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 3.08 | $20.77 | -1% | +20.77 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 67% | 1.46 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 33% | 3.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.81 | 2.98 | +6.1% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.46 | 1.42 | -2.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1499.11 | 1405.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.19 | -12.53 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 6.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |