← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 22, 12:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Joey Cantillo (ERA 3.8, WHIP 1.44)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado Rockies win in Colorado Rockies v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.38 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 59% | 1.73 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 41% | 6.74 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.62 | 1.14 | -29.7% | |
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.29 | 6.74 | +194.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| Colorado Rockies | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colorado Rockies | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1392.26 | 1494.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.06 | 4.29 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 1.31 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.70 |