← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 21, 11:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Mets win in Chicago White Sox v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.40 | -0% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 57% | 1.70 |
| New York Mets win | 43% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 2.14 | 2.24 | +4.5% | |
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.62 | 1.67 | +3.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1504.49 | 1493.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.93 | 4.98 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 2.27 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |