Miami Marlins 3–2 Washington Nationals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 21, 11:10 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73	Drought fade	$10.00	1.73	$7.32	+3%	+7.32	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Miami Marlins win	56%	1.90
Washington Nationals win	44%	11.74

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Washington Nationals win		1.97	11.74	+496.0%
Miami Marlins win		1.83	1.07	-41.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Washington Nationals	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2
Miami Marlins	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Miami Marlins	Washington Nationals
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1491.27	1466.61
elo momentum (last 5)	1.89	-4.60
matches since win	3.00	1.00
rest days	2.05	0.96
runs against avg (last 10)	4.00	4.10
runs for avg (last 10)	4.80	4.00