← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 20, 12:05 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Cade Cavalli (ERA 3.36, WHIP 1.24) · home: Kumar Rocker (ERA 4.5, WHIP 1.4)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in Texas Rangers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.26 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.26 | $12.60 | -2% | +12.60 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 56% | 7.85 |
| Washington Nationals win | 44% | 2.29 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.19 | 1.11 | -49.0% | |
| Texas Rangers win | 1.65 | 7.85 | +376.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1481.97 | 1464.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.00 | -4.59 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.70 |