← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 16, 05:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Casey Mize (ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.09) · home: Tanner Bibee (ERA 3.99, WHIP 1.13)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.98 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 1.98 | $4.90 | -3% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 51% | 1.93 |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 49% | 2.01 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 1.83 | 1.88 | +3.2% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.90 | 1.97 | +3.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1493.93 | 1528.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.60 | 8.31 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.80 |