← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 11, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Brandon Young (ERA 3.43, WHIP 1.31) · home: Bailey Ober (ERA 4.45, WHIP 1.22)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore Orioles win in Minnesota Twins v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.04 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 2.04 | $10.40 | +0% | +10.40 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 51% | 31.21 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 49% | 2.04 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.01 | 1.03 | -48.8% | |
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.79 | 31.21 | +1639.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota Twins | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1472.53 | 1493.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.48 | -9.18 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.20 |