← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 8, 10:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Max Scherzer (ERA 7.92, WHIP 1.63) · home: Aaron Nola (ERA 5.55, WHIP 1.44)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.66 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.66 | $6.60 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 59% | 1.67 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 41% | 2.46 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 2.34 | 2.34 | 0.0% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.67 | 1.63 | -2.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1537.62 | 1498.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.21 | 3.30 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.70 |