← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 8, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Ronel Blanco (ERA 7.36, WHIP 1.3) · home: Robbie Ray (ERA 3.08, WHIP 1.29)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 51% | 29.00 |
| Houston Astros win | 49% | 2.11 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 1.90 | 2.04 | +7.6% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.76 | 1.82 | +3.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1518.33 | 1511.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.21 | 2.59 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 2.31 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.40 |