← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 7, 11:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.36 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.36 | $3.62 | +0% | +3.62 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 69% | 1.46 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 31% | 3.40 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.73 | 3.19 | +16.7% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.42 | 1.38 | -2.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | 13 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1564.64 | 1415.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.58 | -11.71 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.00 |