← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Framber Valdez (ERA 4.41, WHIP 1.39) · home: Bryce Miller (ERA 2.8, WHIP 0.92)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 1.86 | $4.30 | +0% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 52% | 1.86 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 48% | 2.34 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.90 | 2.05 | +8.2% | |
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.76 | 1.79 | +1.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1502.72 | 1515.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.57 | 14.80 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 7.60 |