← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Luis Castillo (ERA 5.06, WHIP 1.39) · home: Ranger Suarez (ERA 3.15, WHIP 1.16)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago White Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.62 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 2.62 | $8.10 | -4% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 60% | 3.40 |
| Chicago White Sox win | 40% | 2.66 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 2.34 | 1.33 | -43.3% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.57 | 3.40 | +116.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1563.20 | 1498.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.17 | 1.52 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.40 |