← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Connor Prielipp (ERA 4.73, WHIP 1.3) · home: Logan Gilbert (ERA 3.44, WHIP 0.99)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +0% | +6.48 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 59% | 1.65 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 41% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 2.26 | 2.40 | +6.1% | |
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.57 | 1.60 | +1.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Seattle Mariners | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Seattle Mariners | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1501.70 | 1474.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.86 | 5.51 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |