← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Jul 31, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Erick Fedde (ERA 4.25, WHIP 1.4) · home: Nick Martinez (ERA 2.45, WHIP 1.1)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.71 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.71 | $7.10 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 56% | 1.71 |
| Chicago White Sox win | 44% | 2.27 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 2.14 | 2.23 | +4.4% | |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.65 | 1.68 | +1.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tampa Bay Rays | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1527.76 | 1496.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.27 | 3.54 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.29 | 1.21 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 1.70 | 4.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.70 |