← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jake Bennett (ERA 2.58, WHIP 0.94) · home: Gage Jump (ERA 4.42, WHIP 1.42)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Oakland Athletics v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 56% | 1.83 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 44% | 2.40 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.76 | 1.73 | -1.7% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 1.93 | 2.14 | +10.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1434.33 | 1542.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.95 | -2.08 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.70 |