← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Jul 28, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Gavin Williams (ERA 3.78, WHIP 1.1)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.51 | +2% | +10.51 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 52% | 1.93 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 48% | 2.19 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.83 | 1.79 | -1.8% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 1.97 | 2.03 | +3.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1476.08 | 1510.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.67 | -10.78 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |