← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 26, 05:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Walker Buehler (ERA 5.23, WHIP 1.43) · home: Janson Junk (ERA 5.09, WHIP 1.35)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.15 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.15 | $11.50 | +2% | +11.50 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 52% | 7.85 |
| San Diego Padres win | 48% | 2.15 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 1.86 | 2.09 | +12.6% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 1.76 | 1.77 | +0.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1483.26 | 1508.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.69 | 9.14 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 6.30 |