← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Jul 24, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Spencer Arrighetti (ERA 4.34, WHIP 1.31) · home: Davis Martin (ERA 3.31, WHIP 1.27)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.90 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 54% | 5.56 |
| Houston Astros win | 46% | 2.24 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 2.09 | 1.16 | -44.4% | |
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.60 | 5.56 | +248.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| Chicago White Sox | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1501.28 | 1493.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.54 | 2.31 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.98 | 1.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.30 |