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Minnesota Twins 0–2 Oakland Athletics

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 12:10 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Jacob Lopez (ERA 6.64, WHIP 1.73) · home: Zebby Matthews (ERA 5.4, WHIP 1.34)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76
Pitcher edge$10.001.76$7.63+2%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Minnesota Twins win56%3.80
Oakland Athletics win44%2.41

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Oakland Athletics win2.012.40+19.4%
Minnesota Twins win1.671.61-3.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Oakland Athletics0000110002
Minnesota Twins0000000000

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMinnesota TwinsOakland Athletics
congestion 21d13.0012.00
elo1469.991438.54
elo momentum (last 5)-1.391.99
matches since win0.002.00
rest days1.292.19
runs against avg (last 10)5.208.00
runs for avg (last 10)3.903.90