← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 12:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Sandy Alcantara (ERA 3.89, WHIP 1.22) · home: Peter Lambert (ERA 3.03, WHIP 1.11)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.87 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.87 | $8.70 | +1% | +8.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 53% | 1.90 |
| Miami Marlins win | 47% | 2.05 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 1.86 | 1.93 | +3.9% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.58 | 1.90 | +19.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Houston Astros | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1490.63 | 1493.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.05 | -11.55 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.60 |