← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 11:07 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Griffin Jax (ERA 4.08, WHIP 1.27) · home: Braydon Fisher (ERA 3.65, WHIP 1.18)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.90 | $8.96 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 50% | 1.97 |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 50% | 2.01 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.83 | 1.93 | +5.8% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.86 | 1.90 | +2.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1490.48 | 1518.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.78 | 2.58 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 5.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.80 |