New York Yankees v Pittsburgh Pirates

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Jul 21, 11:05 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Bubba Chandler (ERA 4.77, WHIP 1.45) · home: Will Warren (ERA 4.03, WHIP 1.36)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.71	Hot hand fade	$5.00	1.71	$3.55	+3%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
New York Yankees win	56%	1.76
Pittsburgh Pirates win	44%	2.52

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Pittsburgh Pirates win		1.97	2.34	+18.9%
New York Yankees win		1.70	1.60	-6.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.